Sub-Saharan Africa will see the world’s highest growth in mobile data traffic by 2028 (report)
July 20th 2023
The report highlights that the projected sharp increase in mobile data traffic in sub-Saharan Africa over the next few years will be mainly driven by the increase in the adoption of smartphones and the massive investments in the deployment of 4G and 5G networks in the region.
Accelerating the migration of subscribers from second- and third-generation (2G and 3G) mobile networks to newer networks will boost mobile data traffic in sub-Saharan Africa, according to a report published last June by Swedish telecommunications equipment giant Ericsson.
Entitled ” Ericsson Mobility Report 2023 “, the report specifies that data traffic on all active mobile networks on the continent will increase from 1.7 exabytes (1 exabyte equals 1000 billion gigabytes) on average per month in 2022, to 11.4 exabytes per month in 2028, an average annual growth rate of 37%.
This increase is mainly due to the fact that operators active in Africa will continue to invest massively in 4G and 5G networks to migrate their customers who subscribe to 2G and 3G networks.
The increase in total data traffic south of the Sahara will also be driven by the rising rate of smartphone adoption in the region. The number of users of these smartphones is expected to increase from 410 million in 2022 to 690 million in 2028.
The average monthly consumption of mobile data per smartphone should therefore quadruple between 2022 and 2028, rising from 4.7 to 19 gigabytes (GB), which represents a growth rate of 26% on average per year. This rate is higher than the world average (20%).
The number of 5G subscriptions will reach 140 million in 2028
The report also reveals that 4G will remain the main contributor to new subscriptions in the region until 2028. It will represent around 58% of total mobile subscriptions by this deadline compared to 30% in 2022.
With the number of subscriptions increasing from 3 million at the end of the past year to 140 million in 2028, 5G should however register the fastest growth rate. To date, more than ten countries in sub-Saharan Africa have launched commercial 5G networks, with many more countries planning to do so in the coming years, which will increase the share of 5G subscriptions to 13% of total mobile network subscriptions in 2028.
Although it remains an important technology in the region due to its compatibility with basic and very affordable mobile phones, the accessibility of its services and its large subscriber base in rural areas, 2G is expected to see its total number of subscribers continuously decrease over the next few years, to be limited to 29% of the total number of subscriptions in 2028 against 49% in 2022.
Ericsson also indicates that the total number of 5G subscriptions worldwide is expected to increase from around one billion in 2022 to 4.6 billion by the end of 2028, or more than 50% of all mobile subscriptions by this horizon. To date, approximately 240 commercial 5G networks have been launched worldwide.
Source: Agence Ecofin Back