South Africa’s MVNO market set to triple by 2030
June 18th 2026
A new report from Africa Analysis forecasts that South Africa’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market will grow from 4.4 million active SIMs in 2025 to 14.4 million by 2030, driven by banking MVNOs and rising eSIM adoption.
South Africa’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market is expected to grow to 14.4 million SIMs by 2030, more than tripling from 4.4 million active MVNO SIMs in 2025.
That is according to the newly released 2026 South Africa MVNO Market Outlook Report by Africa Analysis.
The market research and analysis company believes that the South African MVNO market has entered a new phase of development, evolving from a niche telecommunications segment into a strategic customer engagement platform for banks, retailers, insurers and digital businesses.
Banking MVNOs become the growth engine
The report identifies banking MVNOs as the primary driver of market growth over the next five years.
Capitec Connect reached approximately 1.9 million subscribers by the end of 2025, accounting for around 41% of the local MVNO market.
Other major banking-led operators – including FNB Connect, Standard Bank Connect and Nedbank Connect – are increasingly using connectivity to strengthen customer relationships, improve loyalty and support broader digital ecosystem strategies, according to Africa Analysis.
“The South African MVNO market has entered a fundamentally different phase of development. We are seeing connectivity embedded into broader customer ecosystems where the primary objective is no longer selling airtime, but improving customer engagement, loyalty and retention,” said Andre Wills, managing director at Africa Analysis.
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MVNO’s linked to banks will be a primary driver of market growth in SA’s MVNO market over the next few years. (Source: Image by DC Studio on Freepik)
Wills said this represents the emergence of the “MVNO 3.0 model,” a new generation of operators that use mobile connectivity to increase customer retention, drive digital engagement and enhance customer lifetime value.
The report flagged that under this model, connectivity becomes an embedded service within broader banking, retail, insurance and digital ecosystems rather than a standalone telecom product.
Some of the most successful South African MVNOs have come from banks and retailers that target their already large customer bases and strong distribution channels to offer mobile services.
Significant growth potential remains
Despite rapid growth, South Africa remains underpenetrated relative to leading global MVNO markets with a similar market age, Africa Analysis stated.
At the end of 2025, MVNOs made up just 3.7% of the total telecom market in SA compared to 12.6% for other MVNO markets at similar market age.
“This suggests substantial headroom for future growth as digital ecosystems expand and new brands enter the market,” the fourth annual edition of the report stated.
Africa Analysis predicts that by 2030 the MVNO market will represent 12.5% of the total retail mobile market.
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(Source: Africa Analysis 2026 South Africa MVNO Market Outlook Report)
Future growth is expected to come from different segments including banking and financial services brands; retail and loyalty ecosystems; digital-first service providers; Internet service providers; insurance and affinity brands; and emerging digital platforms.
The report states that future market leaders will be determined “less by price competition and more by their ability to use connectivity as a strategic layer” within broader customer ecosystems.
eSIMs expected to accelerate growth
The research also identified that eSIM technology will be a key catalyst for the next phase of MVNO development in the Southern African country.
Approximately 59% of South African MVNOs either already support eSIM technology or have announced plans to introduce it.
“By removing the need for physical SIM cards, eSIM enables fully digital customer acquisition, reduces distribution costs and lowers barriers to market entry,” the report explained.
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